CASCADE RISK MODEL · 7 NODES · REAL-TIME PROPAGATION
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Risk Type—
Exposure—
Financial Impact—
Confidence—
30d Trend—
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Intelligence Panel
Key Risk Drivers
Flood Exposure
87
Carbon Tax Impact
74
Supply Disruption
68
Regulatory Trigger
61
Asset Stranding
55
Market Repricing
47
Financial Exposure 87% conf.
Total Exposure$4.73B
Revenue at Risk$1.24B
EBITDA Impact–18.4%
Stranded Assets$640M
Carbon Liability$210M
Insurance Gap$380M
Asset Vulnerability
Sites Assessed38
High Vulnerability14 sites
Flood Zone Exposure6 sites
Heat Stress Exposure9 sites
Avg Vulnerability Score64.2 / 100
Supply Chain Concentration
Critical Tier-1 Suppliers3 high-risk zones
HHI Concentration0.31 (High)
Alt. Source Available62% partial
Disruption Recovery (est.)60–90 days
Mitigation Actions
Hedge flood exposure · Bangladesh Delta
3 facilities · $340M exposure · Q2 2025
Diversify Tier-1 supply from Persian Gulf
$180M at risk · extreme heat scenario
Carbon tax provision · Scope 2 re-pricing
$75/tCO₂ by 2026 · $210M liability
Reclassify 5 facilities as stranded assets
Accelerated depreciation schedule required
Methodology
NGFS Phase IV Scenario Framework · IPCC AR6 Physical Hazard Data · S&P Global Physical Risk Scores · MSCI Climate Value-at-Risk · Internal C-LAYER Framework v2.4 · TCFD LEAP methodology
| Zone / Region ↕ | Primary Hazard ↕ | Risk Score ↓ | 30d Trend | Scenario Δ ↕ | Rating ↕ | Supplier Dependency | Econ. Loss Est. ↕ | Confidence Interval |
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